Consumers are not static, so a comprehensive sales forecasting system needs to have dynamic factors that express consumer movement. Site Perfect Research uses a variable called “Shopping Bias” which measures the flow of consumers in a specific geographic area (census tract or BandQuad sector). Consumers with an unusual proclivity to flow in the direction of a store location (either toward or through) are considered to have a “bias” in the direction of the site.
Bias is coded on a scale of 0 to 7; the higher the value the stronger the bias tendency. A code of “0” represents no Bias, i.e., no unusual orientation toward the site. A code of “7” means the site is positioned in such a way relative to the subject population as to intercept their movement for nearly all shopping, commuting and other activities.
The real estate analyst codes this variable. Factors that can influence bias ratings are:
– Access patterns
– Geographic barriers (as they limit alternative routes of escape)
– Major employment concentrations
– Retail draws, particularly shopping centers
– Placement of other draws
A couple of examples follow which show higher bias values in areas whose customers are intercepted in their travels by the subject site.
Equally important are barriers, both physical and psychological. Barriers can have highly variable impact, ranging from omission of an area from the trade area to a moderately lower sales penetrations. SPR uses a structured classification system to distinguish between these situations.
SPR pioneered the shopping bias and barrier measurement in the location research industry. We continue to hone our procedures and lead the way in this area.